Complete 3A-1 Football Playoff Scenarios

Seems like just yesterday we kicked off the 2026 high school football season in August in the excruciating 100+ degree heat. But, here we are in mid-October, with only three weeks left in the regular season. So what better time to start laying out the different playoff scenarios for each team?

This article will assume two things: a Mansfield victory over Greenland this Friday, and a Charleston victory over West Fork. Greenland and West Fork fans – I will be the first to apologize if I’m wrong and will write a public apology. But for the sake of this article, sorry. It’s going in the L column.

3A-1 will match up with 3A-4 in the first round of this year’s playoffs. So the 1-seed in 3A-1 will face the five seed in 3A-4, the 2-seed will face the 4-seed, and so on and so forth. 3A-4 will be on the upper of the bracket. That means that in the 3 vs 3 game, 3A-4 will host. Here is a link to the bracket with pairings

Here is a link to the bracket with pairings.

Here are a few basic rulesfor how the pairings work. The high seed will always be the home team. So, in the 2-seed vs 4-seed match up in the second round, 2-seed hosts. If there are two teams playing with the same seed, the home team will be the team on the higher spot on the bracket.

Now without further ado, let’s go over the playoff scenarios for each team.

MOST IMPORTANT GAMES FOR PLAYOFF SEEDING

MANSFIELD – Mansfield has clinched a playoff spot for the fifth consecutive season. Quite honestly, the Greenland game this Friday has little to no bearing on the Mansfield playoff seeding. If Greenland somehow pulls off the miraculous upset, Mansfield could still get the 1-seed with a victory over Charleston, because all of the other teams in the conference besides Charleston have 2 or more losses. The highest Mansfield could finish would be first, and the lowest they could finish would be second with a loss to Charleston (again, this is assuming a victory over Greenland this week). Mansfield has a bye week 10.

CHARLESTON – Charleston clinches a playoff spot for the 39th consecutive season with a victory over West Fork Friday. This playoff streak is currently a state record. This would set up a winner take all game on October 30th, with Mansfield visiting Charleston for the 3A-1 conference championship. If Charleston beats Mansfield, they will get the 1-seed regardless of the outcome of the Lavaca game, because Lavaca has two losses after their loss to Cedarville. The highest Charleston can finish is first.

But, this is where things can get kind of hairy. Charleston can finish as low as FOURTH, although a lot of things would have to fall into place for that to happen. Lavaca and Cedarville would both have to win out, and win their games by the maximum tiebreaker of 13 points or higher. Lavaca has West Fork and Charleston left, while Cedarville has West Fork and Greenland left. This means Lavaca would have to beat West Fork and Charleston by more than 13, and Cedarville would have to beat West Fork and Greenland by more that 13. If both of those things happened, and Charleston loses to Mansfield week 9, this would create a three-way tie for the 2-seed. And Charleston would finish fourth, because they would have the low tie-breaker. This goes back to the Paris game, when the Eagles scored a touchdown with no time left to cut the score from 27-12 to 27-19. It would take a lot to make this scenario a possibility, but that Paris game theoretically could come into play.

CEDARVILLE – With the upset victory at Lavaca last week, the Pirates are sitting in really solid shape for the 3-seed. Their odds of making the playoffs are basically 99.9%, but not 100% yet. They can still miss the playoffs if they lose out, and either Paris or West Fork wins out. Cedarville needs one win, or one loss each by Paris and West Fork, to clinch a playoff spot. Cedarville is on a bye this week, and ends the season with West Fork and Greenland. Cedarville can finish as high as the 2-seed, with the scenario outlined above in the Charleston section. In the event of a three-way tie, Cedarville could get the 2-seed with the tiebreaker points and the head to head win over Lavaca. Cedarville’s most likely spot is the 3-seed.

LAVACA – Lavaca was on a collision course for a week 10 matchup with Charleston with a chance to get the 2-seed. Their loss to Cedarville last week complicated things, but the Golden Arrows can still finish second in the conference if they get some help. To get the 2-seed, Lavaca needs to win out (at Paris, vs. Charleston), have Charleston lose to Mansfield, and have Cedarville lose one of their last games to either Greenland or West Fork. Lavaca could still miss the playoffs if they lose out, and Paris wins out (Eagles play Lavaca, Greenland, and West Fork).

GREENLAND – Sorry Green Pirates, but we’re going to go ahead and assume a loss to Mansfield, putting you at 1-3 in conference play. Greenland has a win over West Fork, so it would need to win against either Paris or Cedarville to get the 5-seed. There is a wild scenario where there could be a 3-way tie for fifth between Greenland, Paris, and West Fork. But as mentioned earlier, we’re going to assume a West Fork loss to Charleston. So if West Fork pulls off the upset, we’ll have to revisit this scenario.

PARIS – Like West Fork, Paris is also 0-3 in conference play. But between the two, Paris has the better chance to sneak into the playoffs for two reasons. First, they don’t have Charleston or Mansfield left to play, and second, they have a game against Greenland head to head. If Paris can beat Greenland and end the season with a win at West Fork, the Eagles could be the surprise playoff team as the 5-seed. If they’re able to upset Lavaca and finish 3-3 in conference, they could go as high as the 3-seed if Cedarville gets another loss somewhere. I’d give Paris about a 15% chance of making the playoffs as the 5- seed. 4-seed 1% chance, 3-seed 0.00001% chance.

WEST FORK – West Fork is on the outside looking in at 0-3 in conference. They have to win out to make the playoffs, which is less than a 1% shot since they have to travel Charleston.

IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY

If the AAA canceled the rest of the regular season tomorrow and just said roll with it, this would be the first round matchups.

The 3A-4 standings could shift quite a bit by the end of the season. Atkins is the lone undefeated team at 4-0, and has a win over Glen Rose. They will likely be the one seed barring some major upsets. Jessieville and Perryville have a week 9 match-up that could flip-flop the 3 and 4 seeds. Danville may fall out of the running for the 5-seed after likely losing to Glen Rose and Atkins. Danville will play Cutter Morning Star week 9 for a potential 5-seed battle.

Regardless of what happens, it should be a fun and entertaining last three weeks of the season. And if there is one thing I have learned so far, it’s that what SHOULD or what LIKELY will happen, very well may not happen. So this scenario could be completely flipped next week, and I’ll just have to write the scenarios all over again.