Conference 3A-1 Playoff Scenarios For Week 10

And just like that, here we are at the last week of the regular season. The one seed is settled. No drama there. But 2-5 still has several different ways they can play out.

Simplest outcome: Charleston beats Lavaca, gets the 2 seed, Cedarville gets 3, and Lavaca gets 4.

Complicated outcome: If Charleston loses to Lavaca, and Cedarville beats Greenland, it would create a “perfect triangle” of three teams all with 4-2 conference records, all with wins over each other. Charleston beats Cedarville, who beat Lavaca, who in this scenario, would beat Charleston.

Here are the current tie-breaker standings: Charleston 47, Cedarville 39, Lavaca 38. So what does this mean? If Charleston loses to Lavaca, they will get 0 tiebreaker points. Lavaca will get tiebreaker points for how ever much they win by up to 13. For example, if Lavaca were to win 35-21, they would get 13 tiebreaker points, which is the max. That would put Lavaca at 51, and Charleston would stay at 47. Now it comes down to Cedarville. If Cedarville beats Greenland 35-21, they get 13 tiebreaker points, giving them 52 total. Cedarville then gets the 2-seed. But if Cedarville only beats Greenland by less than 10, Lavaca would have more tiebreaker points.

Mansfield – Finished conference with a perfect 6-0 record after a 38-28 win at Charleston. The Tigers clinch the one seed, and at least three home games if they keep winning. They could have to travel for their semi-finals matchup if their opponent is also a one seed, due to being on the lower part of the bracket.

Charleston – Clinched playoff berth. Can clinch the 2-seed with a win at Lavaca. If they lose, things can get complicated, as mentioned above. Depending on the point margin of the game against Lavaca, Charleston could fall as low as the 4-seed. If, just for example, Lavaca only beats Charleston by one point, Charleston would have more tie-breaker points than Lavaca and would be seeded higher in the “perfect triangle” scenario.

Cedarville – Clinched playoff berth. Can finish as high as second, if Lavaca beats Charleston, and Cedarville beats Greenland by more than 13 points. Can finish as low as fourth with a loss, or a close win in which Lavaca gets more tiebreaker points.

Lavaca – They need a win over Charleston to finish higher than fourth, due to head to head loss to Cedarville. Can finish as high as second, or as low as fourth. For Lavaca to get the two seed, they need to beat Charleston by 10 or more points to pass the Tigers in tiebreaker points, and would need Cedarville to win by 8 or less.

Paris – With the win over Greenland, Paris controls their own destiny for the five seed. The Eagles can clinch with a win over West Fork. Can miss playoffs with a loss to West Fork, and a Greenland win over Cedarville.

Greenland – The loss to Paris put the Pirates in a tough spot. They need to beat Cedarville, and need Paris to lose to West Fork.

West Fork – Eliminated from playoffs. Yes, they could beat Paris, and that would make a “perfect triangle” of three 1-5 teams. But the best West Fork can do is tie Greenland for tiebreaker points, but Greenland has a head to head win over West Fork so that three way tie would go to Greenland.

Following? Ok, probably not. Let me throw out a few scenarios.

Scenario 1: Charleston beats Lavaca 42-21, Cedarville beats Greenland 42-14, Paris beats West Fork 28-14. Charleston gets two seed, Cedarville three, Lavaca four, Paris five.

Scenario 2: Lavaca beats Charleston 42-21, Cedarville beats Greenland 42-14, Paris beats West Fork 28-14. Cedarville would have one more tie-breaker point than Lavaca, so Pirates get two seed, Lavaca three, Charleston four, Paris five.

Scenario 3: Lavaca beats Charleston 42-21, Cedarville beats Greenland 28-27, Paris beats West Fork 28-14. Lavaca would have more tiebreaker points, so they would get the two seed, Charleston three, Cedarville four, Paris five.